Forrester: Half of CIOs expect to miss AI ROI targets in 2027
Forrester's State of AI Survey 2026 reveals that 53% of CIOs anticipate missing AI return-on-investment targets by 2027, despite AI accounting for a fifth of business technology spend. Only 22% of decision-makers report positive earnings impacts. As budgets struggle to outpace inflation and shift to consumption-based models, scrutiny intensifies on justifying AI expenditures against tangible financial outcomes.
Key points
- Forrester's State of AI Survey 2026 indicates that 53% of CIOs expect to miss their AI ROI targets in 2027, even as AI is projected to represent 20% of all business technology spend.
- Only 22% of AI decision-makers have reported a positive impact on earnings over the past year, while 45% of CIOs define success as achieving ROI within one year.
- Despite rising AI budgets, 53% of tech leaders expect increases to be below inflation, creating financial strain as providers shift from seat-based subscriptions to consumption-based pricing models.
- The report highlights that while experimentation is evolving into meaningful adoption, the disconnect between investment and financial outcomes is driving increased scrutiny on executive spending decisions.
- Forrester predicts businesses will improve at linking AI investments to financial results, but current trends suggest many organizations are merely keeping pace with rising costs rather than achieving net growth.
Forrester’s latest State of AI Survey 2026 reveals a growing disconnect between corporate AI investment and financial returns. The report projects that AI will account for a fifth of all business technology spend in 2027, driven by a shift from experimental phases to meaningful adoption. However, this increased expenditure has not yet translated into proportional profitability, with only 22% of AI decision-makers reporting a positive impact on earnings over the past year.
Financial pressures are intensifying as most tech leaders expect to increase their budgets next year, yet 53% anticipate these increases will fall below the rate of inflation. This trend means many organizations are struggling to achieve net growth in their technology spending. Furthermore, the cost structure of AI is evolving, with providers moving away from fixed seat-based subscriptions toward consumption-based models. This shift introduces variable costs, such as per-token pricing, which complicates budgeting and forecasting for CIOs.
The survey highlights that 53% of CIOs expect to miss their AI ROI targets in 2027, a significant metric given that 45% of these executives define success as achieving a return on investment within a single year. This gap between expectation and reality is placing greater scrutiny on executives to justify AI expenditures. While Forrester predicts that businesses will become better at linking AI investments to tangible financial outcomes in the coming years, the current landscape suggests that many companies are currently focused on keeping pace with rising costs rather than realizing significant net gains from their AI strategies.
Sources
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